Over 2,000 data points consistently demonstrate a singular truth: Crypto asset prices tend to increase when this quant algorithm identifies bullish conditions.
If you look at crypto assets’ price movements as a series of isolated events, the picture is messy. Sure, some traders can occasionally win big off one-time events or thanks to sensing a meme-inspired trend.
In the long run, however, most of these “fortuitous” traders tend to lose.
Why? Because they have to pick big-time winners to cover all the times they miss their targets.
For every Shiba Inu, there were a thousand coins that didn’t moon.
This is why crypto traders who employ processes rather than try to predict events are more likely to fill their bags in the long run.
They trade on probabilities rather than hoping that Token X goes parabolic next week. They win on aggregate numbers instead of sexy-looking one-offs. If you offered them average weekly returns of over 5% on trades… they’d bite your handoff.
ood things come to those who wait
There are two unmistakable trends here. Firstly, the higher the VORTECS™ Score, the greater the average returns. In other words, the more confident the algorithm is that the historical conditions around the coin are bullish, the more likely this asset is to deliver greater gains after the high score was registered.
Secondly, time is of consequence. The algorithm has been trained on a fuzzy time frame with the emphasis on identifying favorable conditions that may materialize over several days.
The more time passes after the signs of a historically favorable outlook are recognized by the VORTECS™ algorithm, the better, on average, the asset’s price performance looks. Favorable conditions shaping up around high-scoring tokens generate the greatest price increases after 168 hours (one week) from first showing up on the algorithm’s radar.
Doing the crypto trading math
A 5 or 6% return on investment over a week may not seem a lot, in these days of bull market plenty. Don’t be fooled.
Studies show that short-term traders often lose money. One recent paper estimated that “97% of all individuals who persisted for 300 days” in the Brazilian equities futures market fell into this category. Other studies have demonstrated similar results.
So to find an algorithm that can generate consistently positive average returns over accurately measured periods of time is — well, the Holy Grail for crypto traders.
Is it infallible? Absolutely not. Again, don’t be fooled. The VORTECS™ algorithm has thrown up plenty of scores that suggested bullish conditions, and yet prices failed to rise.
What this table shows is the AVERAGE return over a specific time frame following an arbitrary score.
For this analysis, each asset could only yield one observation per day, i.e. if a coin went from 79 to 81, then back to 79 and then to 80 once again within a few hours, only its first entry to 80+ would count.
This way, we ensured that the analysis did not give disproportional representation to instances of more volatile VORTECS™ Scores as opposed to those times when assets went above reference thresholds and maintained high Scores for longer times.
The average price movement figures that you see in the table are aggregated from hundreds of digital assets hitting high VORTECS™ Scores over the observed period of almost 11 months.
They reflect crypto assets’ performances in bull, bear, and sideways markets, in both Bitcoin season and Altseason, and for all sorts of assets from DEX tokens to layer one platforms and privacy coins.