Russian President Vladimir Putin made two misjudgments before launching the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, says Martin Kragh, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Foreign Policy Institute.
First, he has misjudged Ukraine, and what kind of country it is.
Because of his worldview, and that he does not judge the existence of Ukraine and so on, he probably thought that millions of Ukrainians would come out and welcome the Russian soldiers, or at least that it would go much easier than it did.
Secondly, he misjudged the agreement of the outside world in trying to stop the Russian forces – with the help of extensive sanctions and support for Ukraine.
Despite this, there are many indications that Putin is prepared to go to great lengths, he says.
If you look at how Russia fought in other conditions, in Syria and Chechnya, 20 years ago, you have conducted this type of warfare, with intensive shelling and destruction of civilian and military infrastructure. But there is also no hesitation in shooting straight into residential areas and more.
What support for the war looks like among the Russian population is unclear, according to Kragh. Because even though surveys conducted this week show that a majority say they support the war, protests are associated with great personal risk.
You can end up in prison, you can lose your job and more. So we do not know exactly what public opinion really looks like, but so far Putin can do what he wants.
We are in the fog of war and we have not seen the beginning of the end at all.
Source: svt & tFe
